Who will win the 2022 Midterms – 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination?

Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination?

Four years ago, Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) jumped into a crowded special election to replace former Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) and was bombarded with criticism about his loyalty to President Donald Trump. He finished third in the Republican primary.

Former President Trump’s pledge to line up an army of loyalists to run in the 2022 midterm elections is beginning to take shape as Mo Brooks (R-AL) announced his candidacy on Monday. We also take a look at the most recent news and rumors swirling around the recall effort of California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D).

On Monday night, Brooks launched a second bid to win an Alabama Senate seat. This time he expects a different race after positioning himself as an aggressive Trump advocate, particularly after the November 2020 election.

Although Brooks has been at the center of the fight in Congress over the 2020 election, he hasn’t always been a Trump stalwart. In 2016, he supported Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in the presidential race and sharply criticized then-candidate Trump. Those comments were used against Brooks in his 2017 Senate race to succeed Sessions.

Brooks said he is “cautiously optimistic” he will have Trump’s support in the race to replace retiring Sen. Richard C. Shelby (R-AL). He also said he has spoken with Trump “a number of times” over the last month.

Former Trump aide Stephen Miller endorsed Brooks at his campaign rally Monday night in Huntsville, Alabama. “Nobody over the last four years has had President Trump’s back more than Mo Brooks,” Miller told the crowd.

While Miller’s endorsement is notable, all eyes will be on Trump. The outgoing Shelby said just as much to reporters on Monday: “If Trump put his stamp on anybody, it would help them right now.”

Brooks’ opponents for the Republican nomination include Lynda Blanchard, who served as Trump’s ambassador to Slovenia. Blanchard has already pledged to spend at least $5 million of her own money on the race. Others who could compete with Brooks include Katie Boyd Britt, Shelby’s former chief of staff, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill and former congressional candidate Jessica Taylor. Some Alabama Republicans believe Boyd Britt would likely have Shelby’s backing if she enters the primary. On the Democratic side, Rep. Terri Sewell (D-AL) has expressed interest in mounting a Senate bid.

Market Pulse: “We’re starting in first,” Brooks said in a Tuesday interview. No truer statement could be made — as Brooks is definitely first — at least in the market tracking who will win Alabama’s GOP Senate nomination. The representative from Alabama’s 5th District leads Katie Britt by 34¢ — 57¢ to 23¢. Merrill is a very distant third at just 5¢.

Market Data at 7:30 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination?

Will Gavin Newsom be recalled in 2021?

While supporters of the effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) turned in more than 2.1 million signatures last week — all but confirming that the governor will face a recall ballot in the fall, a new poll suggests the majority of voters aren’t so keen on ousting him just yet.

The survey, conducted by the independent California-based firm Probolsky Research, found 46 percent of voters and 53 percent of those who say they are likely to vote in a recall election would vote to keep Newsom in office. Forty percent of all voters and 35 percent of likely recall voters would vote to remove him.

About two-thirds of Democratic voters would vote to keep Newsom in office, a relatively low number, but one that hints he has room to grow if he can keep his party in line. Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in California by a nearly 2-to-1 margin.

If recalled, Newsom would be only the second California governor with such a distinction, after Gov. Gray Davis (D) lost his job in 2003. But recall experts say the state is both more conducive to a recall election qualifying for the ballot, and more likely to keep Newsom on the job because of an atmosphere of hyper-partisanship that spurred the recall effort and the party registration gap that Newsom now enjoys.

Now for the twist. Politico reports that Tom Steyer, the erstwhile presidential hopeful and billionaire environmental activist, has been polling the California recall effort — including his own name among a list of possible contenders to succeed Newsom.

While Steyer declined to comment and a source is quoted as being “very surprised if he is looking at the recall ballot,” the article states that at a minimum Steyer’s decision to poll himself does suggest he entertaining the possibilities.

Many Democrats appear to be playing a “wait and see” strategy. There is already speculation that there could be hundreds of candidates in the race because steps to qualify are so low — only $4,000 or 7,000 signatures in a state with 39 million people. A decision whether or not to run also isn’t required until late summer, meaning there is still tons of time to measure Newsom’s political pulse. Jockeying for position could also be tied to Newsom’s first term ending in 2022.

Market Pulse: Traders overall agree with the expert sentiment on Newsom qualifying for a recall vote (98¢) but ultimately not being recalled. A tenth report on signatures expects between “1.7M and 1.725M” valid signatures at 21¢ — well over the required 1.5M signatures needed to trigger the recall vote. At 15¢, traders see little chance of Newsom losing his job in a would-be November ballot.

Market Data at 7:30 a.m. EDT: Will Gavin Newsom be recalled in 2021?

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