Therefore, picking the right candidate to replace the retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO) is mission critical. That is why sirens are slowly going off as former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R) moves closer to a 2022 Senate bid. Greitens resigned in mid-2018, less than two years into his term, following allegations that he sexually assaulted a woman.

The maneuvering, which follows Blunt’s surprise retirement announcement last week, is giving Republicans nightmarish flashbacks to 2012, when they nominated a problematic Missouri Senate candidate, Todd Akin, who went on to lose the election.

Missouri insiders suggest that Greitens would be the one GOP candidate who could lose to a Democrat. A December survey of likely Republican primary voters, conducted by Remington Research Group, found Greitens trailing Blunt 43 percent to 32 percent, indicating that he maintains a base.

Other candidates, in what is expected to be a wide-open field of Republicans, to fill Blunt’s seat include Reps. Ann Wagner (R-MO), Jason Smith (R-MO) and Billy Long (R-MO) and state Attorney General Eric Schmitt (R).

Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft — the son of John Ashcroft, the former governor, senator and Bush-era attorney general — was regarded as someone who could have consolidated the party behind him but has so far opted against running.

Market Pulse: Ashcroft was the early favorite at 35¢ on day one of trading in this market, but has since dropped to just 2¢ after saying he wouldn’t run. Schmitt has seen his odds go the other direction, shifting from 7¢ after opening day to 44¢ as of close yesterday. Schmitt leads the next most likely candidate, former Gov. Greitens, by 25¢. Greitens is priced at 19¢, 5¢ above Smith in third place at 14¢.

While the 6th Congressional District has been controlled by Republicans since the 1980s, Biden came within 3 points of flipping the district, which is made up of the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs and more rural Ellis and Navarro counties.

A win in the district would put Texas squarely on the map for Democrats deciding where to invest money and energy in the midterm elections. The primary is set to take place on May 1 and will be the first election in the state since Republicans dominated up and down the ballot in November, dashing Democratic hopes of finally turning the state blue. Wright won his district – one of the races Democrats targeted – in 2020 by about nine points.

So far, 23 candidates — 11 Republicans, 10 Democrats, a Libertarian and an independent — have filed to run. Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez, who lost to Wright by 12 points in 2018, is seen by many Democrats as their party’s front-runner. On the Republican side of the race, Wright’s widow, Susan Wright, is seen as the front-runner. Wright’s name ID and presence in the district are also seen as advantages for her going into the special election.

Market Pulse: Democrats caution that the race will likely be a challenging off-year election for the party in a district the Cook Political Report rated as likely Republican.

With that in mind, traders currently have Wright at 75¢ making her a heavy favorite over the field to win her late husband’s seat. Sanchez is second at 20¢ — making her the only other candidate in the market priced in double digits. The first round of voting in this special election will be held on May 1.

Vance has been investigating former President Donald Trump’s finances, and the Supreme Court last month cleared the way for the prosecutor’s office to receive Trump’s tax returns and other financial records. Various news reports suggest he will either charge a crime or close the investigation of Trump before he leaves office.

At least eight Democrats are vying for the job with the Democratic primary scheduled for June 22. The winner of that race is widely expected to be a shoe-in to take the November general election.

Among the most notable aspirants are Tali Weinstein, a former clerk to then-Judge Merrick Garland; Alvin Bragg, chief deputy attorney general in New York state; Lucy Lang, a director of John Jay College of Criminal Justice’s Institute for Innovation in Prosecutions; Diana Florence, a longtime prosecutor who is backed by a number of labor unions; Liz Crotty, a former assistant Manhattan district attorney; and Dan Quart, a Manhattan assemblyman. Also vying for the job are Tahanie Aboushi, an attorney backed by Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI); and Eliza Orlins, a public defender who was once a contestant on “Survivor.”

Market Pulse: After a month of trading, Weinstein is the new market favorite over Bragg in the race to replace Vance as Manhattan DA.

Weinstein’s contract has risen 30¢ since opening at 10¢, while Bragg — the market’s long-term favorite until March 16 — has remained relatively steady dropping no lower than the 26¢ mark. Bragg’s market high is 42¢, but is currently trading at 34¢. Aboushi is another consistent contract that has fluctuated between 15¢ and 19¢ since Feb. 11.

In the newest episode of the PredictIt trader podcast, Star Spangled Gamblers, panelists interview Washington Post correspondent Chris Moody to help sharpen your positions on:

• New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s possible resignation or impeachment – Will Andrew Cuomo Resign?
• The 2024 Republican nominee field