NYC Mayor Primary |  2024 Republican presidential nomination


WRU: Adams Leads Ahead of NYC Primary as DeSantis Pips Trump in Poll

Brooklyn Borough President and New York City mayoral candidate Eric Adams. Photo: Krystalb97 / WikiCommons / CC BY-SA 4.0

Also, we take the temperature of the 2024 Republican presidential nomination races as Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) pips former President Donald Trump in a weekend straw poll of conservative voters out West.

*Market prices in each “Market Pulse” updated as of 11 a.m. EDT.

Ahead of Tomorrow’s Election, Adams Remains the Favorite in New York City’s Mayoral Race

An Ipsos poll released this morning has found Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams is leading the field of Democrats vying to become NYC mayor ahead of Tuesday’s primary with 28% support, while former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang came in second place with 20% support.

The Ipsos poll also showed Kathryn Garcia, a former New York City sanitation commissioner, running in third place, at 15% and Maya Wiley, the progressive’s choice, was fourth at 13% in the initial vote count.

Market Data at 11 a.m. EDT: Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?
While those numbers bode well for Adams’ hopes of taking over for the term-limited Mayor Bill de Blasio when all is said and done, it’s still well below the 50% threshold needed to win the nomination outright. Given the city’s new ranked-choice voting (RCV) system, which allows voters to rank candidates by preference, other contenders will have a chance to pull ahead.

In a simulation using RCV, the poll found the race come down to a head-to-head match-up between Adams and Yang, with Adams leading his opponent 56% to 44%.

Recent polling has consistently shown Adams as the frontrunner in the Democratic primary slated for tomorrow, a position his opponents have been increasingly aggressive in challenging. Yang went on the attack against Adams at the final debate last Wednesday, and over the weekend he and Garcia campaigned together in an effort to stem Adams’s momentum in the race.

Market Data at 11 a.m. EDT: Who will lead after the first round of the 2021 New York City Democratic mayoral primary?
The poll also found that crime and safety remains the number one issue for New Yorkers with over half of likely voters selecting it as one of their top issues. Handling the COVID-19 pandemic, affordable housing and reopening business are each top issues for about a quarter of New York voters.

When asked who is best able to handle the major issues affecting New York City, Adams was the clear lead over the rest of the candidates on the issue of crime and public safety. However, on other significant issues, he is very much in line with Yang and the other major candidates. This suggests that if crime remains top-of-mind for voters, Adams will continue to enjoy an advantage. But if the issue fades, or voters change their focus to other topics, his position may fade when the votes are finally counted.

Market Data at 11 a.m. EDT: How will the June 22 New York City primaries play out?
Market Pulse Adams leads Garcia in the overall New York City mayoral winner’s market entering today’s trading by a margin of 59¢ to 25¢. But those figures are shifting. At 11 am EDT, Adams was up 1¢ to 60¢, Garcia is down 4¢ to 21¢ and Yang is up 5¢ to 18¢.

There was similar movement in the first round winner of tomorrow’s Democratic mayoral primary market, where Adams’ contract was up 6¢ to 78¢, Garcia was down 4¢ to 10¢ and Yang was up 3¢ to 9¢. Traders are also expecting the first round winner of tomorrow’s contest to win the primary at 71¢ this morning.

With the results expected to trickle in, traders don’t expect a winner to be declared until round 13 of counting at 24¢. The next closest contract is round 12 at 15¢ as of 11:30 a.m. EDT.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) speaking with attendees at the 2018 Student Action Summit in West Palm Beach, Florida. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0
DeSantis Pips Trump in Straw Poll at Conservative Summit

survey conducted over the weekend at the Western Conservative Summit in Denver found Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) narrowly ahead of former President Trump in a straw poll of potential 2024 candidates.

Of attendees who responded to the survey, 74.12% said they would approve of DeSantis for president in three years time, compared with 71.43% who said the same of Trump. DeSantis won 275 votes, while Trump got 265. The duo had wide leads over the rest of the sprawling field, with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) coming in third with 42.86% of respondents saying they would approve of the Texas senator.

Neither DeSantis nor Trump has officially declared their intentions for 2024, but the former president has teased a third bid for president.

“I’m absolutely enthused. I look forward to doing an announcement at the right time,” he said last month. “As you know, it’s very early. But I think people are going to be very, very happy when I make a certain announcement.”

DeSantis is currently focusing on winning re-election as governor in 2022. Any hopes of taking the next step up to the White House will be heavily predicated on beating Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried or any other would be challengers that come his way between now and Election Day next year.

Market Data at 11 a.m. EDT: Trump leads DeSantis in the 2024 race for the Republican presidential nomination.
Market Pulse: The former president leads Florida’s current governor by a 2¢ margin after the weekend — 26¢ to 24¢. DeSantis’ contract closed a penny higher yesterday, while Trump’s contract lost 2¢ — in turn narrowing Saturday’s 5¢ gap between the two early frontrunners for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

Cruz sits in a tie for fourth place with former Vice President Mike Pence at 6¢. Third place in the market continues to belong to former United Nations ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 9¢.

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