An Ipsos poll released this morning has found Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams is leading the field of Democrats vying to become NYC mayor ahead of Tuesday’s primary with 28% support, while former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang came in second place with 20% support.

The Ipsos poll also showed Kathryn Garcia, a former New York City sanitation commissioner, running in third place, at 15% and Maya Wiley, the progressive’s choice, was fourth at 13% in the initial vote count.

In a simulation using RCV, the poll found the race come down to a head-to-head match-up between Adams and Yang, with Adams leading his opponent 56% to 44%.

Recent polling has consistently shown Adams as the frontrunner in the Democratic primary slated for tomorrow, a position his opponents have been increasingly aggressive in challenging. Yang went on the attack against Adams at the final debate last Wednesday, and over the weekend he and Garcia campaigned together in an effort to stem Adams’s momentum in the race.

When asked who is best able to handle the major issues affecting New York City, Adams was the clear lead over the rest of the candidates on the issue of crime and public safety. However, on other significant issues, he is very much in line with Yang and the other major candidates. This suggests that if crime remains top-of-mind for voters, Adams will continue to enjoy an advantage. But if the issue fades, or voters change their focus to other topics, his position may fade when the votes are finally counted.

There was similar movement in the first round winner of tomorrow’s Democratic mayoral primary market, where Adams’ contract was up 6¢ to 78¢, Garcia was down 4¢ to 10¢ and Yang was up 3¢ to 9¢. Traders are also expecting the first round winner of tomorrow’s contest to win the primary at 71¢ this morning.

With the results expected to trickle in, traders don’t expect a winner to be declared until round 13 of counting at 24¢. The next closest contract is round 12 at 15¢ as of 11:30 a.m. EDT.

A survey conducted over the weekend at the Western Conservative Summit in Denver found Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) narrowly ahead of former President Trump in a straw poll of potential 2024 candidates.

Of attendees who responded to the survey, 74.12% said they would approve of DeSantis for president in three years time, compared with 71.43% who said the same of Trump. DeSantis won 275 votes, while Trump got 265. The duo had wide leads over the rest of the sprawling field, with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) coming in third with 42.86% of respondents saying they would approve of the Texas senator.

Neither DeSantis nor Trump has officially declared their intentions for 2024, but the former president has teased a third bid for president.

“I’m absolutely enthused. I look forward to doing an announcement at the right time,” he said last month. “As you know, it’s very early. But I think people are going to be very, very happy when I make a certain announcement.”

DeSantis is currently focusing on winning re-election as governor in 2022. Any hopes of taking the next step up to the White House will be heavily predicated on beating Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried or any other would be challengers that come his way between now and Election Day next year.

Cruz sits in a tie for fourth place with former Vice President Mike Pence at 6¢. Third place in the market continues to belong to former United Nations ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 9¢.

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