Matt Gaetz Odds

It’s Friday and here are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on: First, radically different tales of two Florida politicians — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) stock is rising among his party’s base, while the same can’t be said for Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL). Then we’ll take a quick tour of elections around the globe. Two presidential elections happening this Sunday in Peru and Ecuador, and we’ll dive into Chinese politics ahead of their 2022 party selection meeting.

*Market prices updated as of 9 a.m. EST on Friday, April 9.


This Week in the Markets

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) speaking with attendees at the 2018 Student Action Summit in West Palm Beach, Florida. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0
DeSantis’ 60 Minutes Boost

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is making national headlines again this week that are no doubt helping to bolster his popularity among Republicans. Last Sunday, CBS’s 60 Minutes ran a scathing report about Florida’s vaccine rollout suggesting that DeSantis gave the Publix grocery store chain preferential treatment to distribute COVID-19 vaccines because they donated $100,000 to DeSantis’ re-election campaign.

The problem for 60 Minutes is that they didn’t have any evidence to back up this “pay-to-play” claim, and that once the full video of the DeSantis remarks that were used in the report were made public it was obvious to everyone (except CBS apparently) that their “deceptive editing” tactics were problematic. They had removed and edited parts of DeSantis’ response to questions from the 60 Minutes reporter at a press conference in which he explained the steps his government took to make the decision to partner with Publix.

Publix is the largest grocery store chain in Florida, with 831 locations, and is a known and trusted brand for Floridians – it was even ranked No. 12 on Fortune magazine’s list of 100 Best Companies to Work For in 2019. Their donation to DeSantis was also neither illegal nor unusual as many large companies donate to the political campaigns of both major parties.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Florida’s Gov. DeSantis surpasses former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential nominee market.
60 Minutes received a lot of blowback from Republicans across the country, but also from Florida Democrats. Palm Beach County Mayor, Dave Kerner (D), released a statement on Monday saying the 60 Minutes report was “intentionally false” and that they “should be ashamed.” Jared Moskowitz, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, called the report “absolute malarky,” and added the context that the reason Publix was picked as a partner instead of pharmacy chains is because they simply weren’t ready. “The federal government delayed the federal pharmacy program and we yet again stepped up first to serve more seniors.”

Publix also released a statement:

“The irresponsible suggestion that there was a connection between campaign contributions made to Gov. DeSantis and our willingness to join other pharmacies in support of the state’s vaccine distribution efforts is absolutely false and offensive.”
Republicans generally feel that the mainstream media is biased against conservative politicians and their interests, and this will definitely serve to embolden those beliefs. The incident also serves to embolden DeSantis and his reputation amongst the grassroots Republican base nationwide.

DeSantis has been gaining national notoriety for what they see as his responsible and pragmatic handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and aversion to statewide lockdowns and mandates. In February, attendees of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) named DeSantis as their favored candidate for the 2024 presidential nomination after former President Donald Trump. And now his stock is on the rise again.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?
Market Pulse: DeSantis has been gaining momentum ever since he was added to the 2024 Republican presidential nominee market on Jan. 20, and this week he surpassed Trump for the first time. Trump has been the longtime favorite to win the nomination and has kept a solid lead against other potential candidates since former UN ambassador and governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, slipped from an on-and-off first place in January. DeSantis passed Trump on Wednesday, where Trump closed at 23¢ to DeSantis’ 24¢. On Thursday, Trump lost more ground with the market closing at Trump 21¢ and DeSantis 23¢.

We also opened a market this week for the winner of the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election, and if DeSantis wants to run for president in 2024, he’ll need to win his re-election campaign in 2022 first. So far, he’s maintained around a 60¢ lead ahead of Florida’s Commissioner of Agriculture, Nikki Fried, who is in second place at 17¢ as of close on Thursday. Fried has been widely tipped as the most likely Democrat to face DeSantis as she is also the only statewide elected member of her party.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) speaking with supporters at a “Liberty for Trump” event at the Graduate Hotel in Tempe, Arizona. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY 2.0
Gaetz Isn’t Going Anywhere, At Least Not Quietly

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) is scheduled to speak tonight at the Save America Summit in Miami, Florida, a conference hosted by the pro-Trump organization Women for America First. This will be the first time Gaetz will speak in front of a large live audience since reports surfaced last week that he’s been under investigation by the FBI since last summer over allegations that he had a sexual relationship with an underage girl and paid for her to travel with him across state lines – a potential violation of federal sex trafficking laws.

Since the story broke last week, the news cycle has seen a steady stream of scandalous Gaetz headlines. Including that the congressman would brag about his sexual escapades to his colleagues on the House floor, and that he had asked Trump for a preemptive pardon due to the investigation, which the former president denied. Gaetz has denied the sex trafficking allegations and maintains that the DOJ investigation is part of an extortion scheme against him and his family.

Market Pulse: In a market that has garnered more than 1.4 million shares traded, Gaetz’s odds of resigning before May 1 appear to be slim. The market hasn’t gone above 34¢ since the day it opened, and hit at a market low of 14¢ during trading on Thursday. Trader comments point out that May 1 is quickly approaching, which could be driving the market price down, but Gaetz’s story will likely be ongoing.

To learn more about political betting odds and markets go to

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Will Matt Gaetz resign before May 1?

You Don’t Have to be Vaccinated to Take This Trip Around the Globe

President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping. Photo: / CC BY 4.0
Remember Monday? Here’s Why We Added Two New Markets on China.

Like it or not, Chinese and US policies (and the politicians guiding them) impact each and every one of us – from the cost and availability of countless consumer products, to cyber security and technology concerns, and even information we have about the origins of the COVID-19 global pandemic. Still, for most Americans, the Chinese political system needs further explanation, especially if you want to trade in these markets.

The Chinese Communist Party is set to elect a new Central Committee at its next National Congress, which will take place in late 2022. Then, the new Central Committee will select the General Secretary who heads the committee’s elite 25-member Politburo and the uber-elite seven-member Standing Committee. This position has held “paramount leader” power over the party, the state and the military since the early 1990s when the General Secretary began serving concurrently as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chair of the Central Military Commission.

Xi Jinping became general secretary in 2012 and was selected for a second term in 2017. Since coming to power, Xi has consolidated his power and centralized policymaking authority under his control to an extent not seen perhaps since Mao Zedong. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete the two-term limit for the president, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as “paramount leader” indefinitely.

Market Prices at 6 a.m. EDT: Interested in China-related markets? Check out these four options.
Now, remember the seven-member Standing Committee chosen from the 25-member Politburo? The “Politburo Standing Committee” (PBSC) is China’s top leadership group. We’re asking if Hu Chunhua will be selected as a member of this committee at the 2022 meeting. There is speculation, because of the reasons talked about above, that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term, but questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies on the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his true political power, and Hu is not known to be one of his allies.

Hu is also a rising political star in China and currently serves as the youngest member of the Politburo as well as at the high-ranking level of vice premier. It’s anticipated that Xi will attempt to block his selection, but if Hu is successful it could be a signal that Xi faces some intra-party conflict and might not hold as much power as people think.

Market Pulse: Traders are confident that Xi Jinping will remain in power as the General Secretary, with the market at 86¢ on Thursday. Because of Xi’s age (he will be 69 in 2022), he will have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aren’t appointed to a new term if they’re over 68 if he wants to stay in power. On Hu Chunhua, traders also give him high hopes of being selected to the PBSC, which is at 78¢. Both the Xi and Hu markets are seeing low trade volume, likely due to a lack of understanding about the Chinese political system.