Senate primaries in key states are heating up and everyone has their eyes on the prize: control of the Senate. One massive question mark hangs over the North Carolina Republican primary to fill retiring Sen. Richard Burr’s (R-NC) seat. That’s whether the daughter-in-law of former President Trump, Lara Trump, will get in the race.

Lara Trump is a North Carolina native and married to Eric Trump, but she has no political experience outside of campaigning for the Trump campaigns in 2016 and 2020. But in a state where Trump’s style and policies are extremely popular, her name could make all the difference. A survey conducted this month by a Republican polling firm showed Lara Trump with 32.4% support, leading in an eight-way primary.

Other Republicans who have officially declared their candidacy are former North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory (R), who announced earlier this month, and former Rep. Mark Walker (R-NC), who made his announcement in December. According to Walker, he has former President Trump’s support, but the official endorsement is still very much up for grabs until Lara Trump decides if she’s getting in the race. Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC) is also considering a run and he’s closely aligned himself with the former president in the House.

Regardless of whether Lara Trump decides to run or not, the North Carolina Senate campaign is one to watch. President Trump won the Tar Heel State by just over a point and Sen. Tom Tillis (R-NC) defeated his Democrat challenger Cal Cunningham by only two points. With such tight margins, the race is expected to be expensive and it will also be closely watched for its implications in which party will control the Senate after next year’s midterms.

The Republican primary nominee market has been a roller coaster over the last 90 days, with Walker leading through most of March, followed by McCrory and Trump. Then last week, Walker dropped 17¢ and McCrory shot to the top. As of Thursday, McCrory was at 27¢, Trump at 24¢ and Walker at 17¢. Budd has held onto fourth since mid-March and ended Thursday at 14¢. Confidence that Lara Trump will run in the primary ended Thursday at 40¢, but the 90-day outlook in that market has been all over the place.

Jackson has remained in the lead on the Democratic side for at least the last 90 days, with 42¢ to his closest contender, former state Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley who is expected to formally enter the race this month. At 34¢, Beasley is well within striking distance.

New developments mean the outlook for the District of Columbia (DC) becoming the 51st state isn’t as promising as it was when we wrote about it last week.

The proposal has received the green light from POTUS and top Democrats, but it faces daunting odds in the Senate, where a handful of Democrats still aren’t on board. Once considered a fringe cause pushed by area locals, the vast majority of Democratic lawmakers are now on the record supporting statehood. Unfortunately for them, in a 50-50 senate “the vast majority” isn’t enough, and they aren’t likely to get any Republican support much less enough to pass the 60-vote filibuster threshold.

At least five Democratic senators haven’t said if they’ll support it or not due to either not having enough information about what’s in the bill, or because they have too many other issues on their plate right now. This group includes Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Angus King (I-ME), who caucuses with the Democrats, Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Krysten Sinema (D-AZ), who hasn’t weighed in at all.