2022 Midterms Elections – Governor Races

Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried on Tuesday officially entered the race for governor in 2022 midterms, becoming the second well-known Democrat to challenge Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in what will be one of the most high-profile governor’s races in the country next year.

The lone statewide elected Democrat’s decision comes after months of speculation about a potential bid and sets her up for a primary battle against Rep. Charlie Crist (D-FL), himself a former governor who announced last month that he would make another run for his old job. Some Democrats had hoped Rep. Val Demings (D-FL), who helped manage the first Trump impeachment and was considered as President Joe Biden’s running mate, would join the race. Instead, she is considering a run against Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL).

Beating DeSantis is a top priority for Florida Democrats, who have been frozen out of the governor’s mansion for more than two decades. The governor is a top ally of former President Trump and has been floated as a potential candidate for the GOP’s 2024 presidential nomination. But defeating the incumbent governor likely won’t be easy. DeSantis is beloved by conservatives and has amassed a staggering war chest for his re-election bid. In April alone, DeSantis’s political committee brought in nearly $14 million, its largest monthly haul since his 2018 campaign.

Fried has made the argument that she’s the Democrat best equipped to face DeSantis, pointing to her success in 2018 when she narrowly defeated former state Rep. Matt Caldwell (R) in the agriculture commissioner race. That same year, Democrat Andrew Gillum lost the governor’s race to DeSantis and former Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) fell to then-Gov. Rick Scott (R) in the Senate contest.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Traders currently prefer Fried over Crist as the top Democrat in the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election market.
In her announcement video, Fried cast herself as a proven crusader against corruption, vowing to “break the whole rigged system.”

“Listen, this won’t be easy. Those in power will do whatever harm it takes to stay there,” Fried said in a video announcing her candidacy. “But I’ve spent my whole life taking on the system. I’m unafraid, I’m tested, I’m ready. And I know you’re ready for something new too.”

DeSantis was also in the news on Tuesday as he signed into law the “Fairness in Women’s Sports Act.” The new Florida law establishes that women’s sports from middle school through college, including intramurals and club teams, are closed to males based on the biological sex listed on a student’s birth certificate. DeSantis has signed into a law a slate of conservative-leaning bills from the GOP-led legislature, including measures cracking down on Big Tech, loosening COVID-19 restrictions and tightening voting rules, ahead of his re-election and possible bid for the White House in 2024.


Something to Watch: Traders have DeSantis firmly placed as the alternative choice in the 2024 Republican presidential primary market if former President Trump decides not to run. DeSantis is priced at 23¢, while Trump’s contract is 5¢ higher at 28¢.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: DeSantis is a heavy favorite at the moment to be re-elected Florida governor next year.

Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican gubernatorial nomination?

The next race for Texas governor won’t be decided until November 2022 midterms, but before then, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) must first get past the March primary where he’s facing a growing list of candidates including former state Sen. Don Huffines of Dallas.

On Tuesday, that task perhaps got a little bit easier as former President Donald Trump threw his support behind Abbott’s re-election bid. The endorsement comes as the governor finds himself embroiled in a fight with Democrats in the state over a new voting rights bill.

In his statement endorsing Abbott, the former president described the Texas Republican as “a fighter and a Great Governor for the incredible people of Texas” and someone who has helped turn the state into a “job-creating machine.”

“Gov. Greg Abbott will continue to be a great leader for the Lone Star State, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement for re-election. He will never let you down!” Trump said in the statement, which was distributed by Save America, his leadership PAC.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Texas Democratic gubernatorial nomination?
Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican gubernatorial nomination?

Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nomination?

Corruption by those that govern in the state of Ohio has came into focus yesterday as federal agents arrested Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and four others Tuesday as part of a $60 million racketeering and bribery investigation that the FBI agent leading Ohio’s public corruption squad said the case was “in a league of its own.”

“This is likely the largest bribery, money laundering scheme ever perpetrated against the people of the state of Ohio,” said US Attorney David DeVillers, whose office will lead the prosecution of the case.

Householder is accused of collecting millions through a dark money group to help elect him to lead the Ohio House of Representatives and later pass a bill to benefit two nuclear plants in northern Ohio.

Nan Whaley, the current mayor of Dayton and a Democratic gubernatorial candidate, weighed in on DeWine’s overall performance in combating corruption at the Ohio Statehouse calling his efforts “too weak.” Learn more about prediction markets, political betting at predictIt.

“When you’re the No. 1 in the country on corruption and your governor has not done anything and has, in fact, even defended some of the people whose houses have been raided by the FBI, I think we definitely need action,” Whaley said Tuesday.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican gubernatorial nomination?
Outside of the statehouse, the cities of Toledo, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Dayton have all faced their own corruption scandals, and many of those involve Democrats. Starting in April 2019, seven people were arrested in a federal investigation into corruption in Dayton while Whaley was mayor. In one instance, former City Commissioner Joey Williams accepted thousands of dollars worth of home improvements, including a new patio, in exchange for helping that company receive contracts with the city and its development arm.

Ohio Republicans suggest Whaley should focus on that corruption closer to home:

“While Nan Whaley is holding a press conference to launch cherry-picked partisan attacks, Republicans are focused on getting Ohioans back to work,” said Ohio Republican Party Executive Director Justin Bis in a statement. “Instead of holding perfunctory press conferences, Mayor Whaley should work on fixing the ‘culture of corruption’ in Dayton’s City Hall.”

Market Pulse: The third governor’s race to be featured today appears headed for a head-to-head match up between DeWine, the incumbent, and Whaley. Traders have Whaley as a more than 70¢ favorite over the next most likely Democrat, John Cranley, to win the 2022 Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nomination. On the Republican side, traders are backing DeWine to win his party’s nomination at 69¢. Though this race is currently closer with Jim Renacci’s second placed contract priced at 32¢.

Something to Watch: Renacci could be the wildcard in the GOP race. He spent eight years as a congressman representing a northeast Ohio district and is an independently wealthy businessman who built his wealth in auto dealerships and nursing homes before entering politics. Renacci also ran for Senate in 2018 after encouragement from then-President Trump, losing to incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) by less than seven points.

Market Data at 6 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nomination?

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