Democrats are facing the reality of the difficulty of defending their extremely narrow majorities in the 2022 midterms, and the impact that could have on who will win the 2024 presidential election. Even though there’s a Democrat in the White House, the majority of down-ballot races did not go in their favor, so with a 221-211 majority in the House and the 50-50 Senate, Democrats have everything to lose.
“In 2020, House Republicans won 28 out of the 29 most competitive districts by highlighting the exact job-killing policies Joe Biden has enacted during his first week in office,” said Michael McAdams, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm for the House GOP. But, Democrats hope that President Joe Biden can succeed in managing the COVID-19 recovery and that will give Democrats the upper-hand, and a strong campaign platform for their party going into the 2022 midterm elections.
On the other side, the Republican party is facing internal questions about their future following the second impeachment and acquittal of the former president where seven Republicans voted against Trump. Questions remain about Trump’s influence over the party in the 2022 midterms and beyond, and whether the former president himself will have a future in elected office.
Some Republicans are doubling down on Trumpism while others are trying to move on. In some cases, Trump and his most dedicated followers are publicly threatening to primary Representatives and Senators who haven’t always taken his side.
Complicating matters for the 2022 midterms is the fact that some states still don’t know what their congressional districts will look like following the 2020 census, and delays in compiling that data could drag on for months. States like New York and California, traditionally strongholds for Democrats, are at risk of losing districts, as population increases in states like Texas and Colorado are likely to mean new districts in those states.
You can bet on the fact that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other Democrats will continue to try to keep former President Trump and the January 6 mob attack on the Capitol in the news and on the minds of constituents. She’s a savvy politician, and she knows that making the 2022 midterms and 2024 presidential election again a referendum on Trump will deflect attention away from Biden’s “job-killing policies” that McAdams at the NRCC referenced.