2022 elections | Georgia republican nomination


*Market prices in each “Market Pulse” updated as of 7 a.m. EDT. We then take a look at two races that received endorsements (of sorts) yesterday. First, its to Georgia and remarks made by former President Donald Trump that have sent a former NFL and University of Georgia star soaring in the race to win the 2022 elections, Georgia Senate Republican nomination. Second, Ohio’s hotly contested special election in the 11th District received a jolt as House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC) gave his endorsement of the Democratic establishment candidate and in turn ruffled a few progressive feathers in the process.


Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?

Brooklyn Borough President and New York City mayoral candidate Eric Adams. Photo: Krystalb97 / WikiCommons / CC BY-SA 4.0
We know, we know… this isn’t an obscure market, but after yesterday’s events we feel compelled to shine a spotlight on how the results in the New York City Democratic mayoral election could play out.

New York City election officials thrust the race for the next mayor into turmoil Tuesday after erroneously counting test ballots alongside election night results, producing about 135,000 “dummy ballots” that skewed results of the city’s first major test of a new ranked-choice voting system.

The major blunder forced the Board of Elections to retract preliminary results it had posted hours earlier. The board promised to republish corrected results Wednesday that will show whether Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams will maintain his lead over former Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia and civil rights lawyer Maya Wiley.

“The board apologizes for the error and has taken immediate measures to ensure the most accurate up-to-date results are reported.” — Board of Election via Twitter
Practically speaking, the results released Tuesday had little bearing on determining the final winner of the race, which won’t be certified until more than 124,000 Democratic absentee ballots are counted beginning next week. This week’s results were meant to show only who would have won the election if absentee ballots weren’t included, an incremental data release intended to provide voters with at least some transparency into the process.
Market Data at 5 a.m. EDT: How will the June 22 New York City primary results play out?
But the mistake marks an inauspicious start for New York’s new system of ranked-choice voting, which asks primary voters to list their top five candidates in order of preference instead of picking just one. The vote-counting was already delayed by New York’s unusually long absentee ballot deadlines and by the board’s decision to release updated results only once a week. The board has said a final winner may not be known until July 12.

Learn more about the 2022 Elections at predictit.org

Garcia’s campaign has said that it expects many of the absentee ballots will go to her. The campaign said an analysis showed many of the ballots were from districts where she beat other candidates in in-person votes. “We’ve been saying from the beginning this is going to be close, and I think this shows this is going to be close,” Lindsey Green, a spokeswoman for Garcia, said Tuesday.

Results on the day of the primary showed Adams in the lead with more than 31% of first-place votes, Wiley had 22% and Garcia had 19%, according to the city’s Board of Elections.

Market Pulse: Adams saw his contract fall 33¢ yesterday, while Garcia’s jumped 31¢ in a day that saw over 1.5M shares traded in the New York City mayoral market. Prior to yesterday’s madness, traders had priced Adams at 85¢, just 4¢ off the post-primary high of 89¢ hit a week ago. Garcia’s contract had been trading at 15¢, while Wiley saw little movement from her position at 3¢.

The overall impact of the results mishap rippled through the rest of the markets and can been seen here.

Market Data at 5 a.m. EDT: Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?

Who will win the 2022 elections – the Georgia Republican Senate nomination?

President Trump speaking at an event on Arizona. Photo: Gage Skidmore / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0.
The Senate race in Georgia is expected to be among the most competitive of the 2022 midterm cycle. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) narrowly won a pair of runoff elections in January, and President Joe Biden carried the state in November. But Georgia remains a tough battleground, and Republicans are eager to take back at least one of the state’s two Senate seats.

Former President Donald Trump said Tuesday relayed a message that former NFL player Herschel Walker plans to make a run for the Senate next year.

“He told me he’s going to, and I think he will,” Trump said on the “Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Show” while discussing Walker running for a Georgia Senate seat. “I had dinner with him a week ago. He’s a great guy. He’s a patriot. He’s a very loyal person,” Trump added.

“I think he’d win. I think it would be very, very hard to beat Herschel…They have the ballads, they made ballads to Herschel. They still sing them all the time. So I think beating him would be very tough. And I think he’s going to run.” — Donald Trump
If Walker ultimately jumps into the race, he would enter the Republican primary as the presumed front-runner given his broad name recognition and likely endorsement from Trump. Walker led the University of Georgia Bulldogs to a national championship as a freshman in 1980. He spent three years playing in the upstart USFL — two of them for a team that Trump owned — and then went to the NFL after the USFL collapsed.
Market Data at 5 a.m. EDT: Which party will win the 2022 US Senate election in Georgia?
Three other Georgia Republicans have already announced plans to take on Warnock next year, including state Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black and two military veterans, Latham Saddler and Kelvin King. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA) has also said that he will run for Senate but only if Walker decides not to.

Former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA), who lost to Warnock, is also said to be eyeing a possible rematch against the Georgia Democrat.

Market Pulse: Walker’s contract jumped 25¢ yesterday — shifting from 45¢ to 70¢ — in what amounts to the single biggest one-day jump over the previous 90-days of trading. The former NFLer, despite not announcing a run just yet, has been the market favorite ever since former Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA) withdrew his interest in a Senate run at the end of April. Gary King holds the next highest priced contract at 11¢, while Kelvin King’s contract has shed more than half of its value in the last two days and is now priced at 8¢.

Traders are still backing Warnock to win re-election next year’s Georgia Senate race pricing the Democratic contract at 56¢, while the Republican contract is at 45¢. Perhaps of note, the Republican contract dipped 2¢ yesterday with the Democratic contract rising 2¢ on Trump’s comments.

Market Data at 5 a.m. EDT: Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?